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From the Magazine: Column: Surprises galore in 2023
By now, forecasters have come to terms with the fact that nobody could have foreseen 2020. The pandemic disrupted every reliable statistic, leaving experts with nothing more than economic fairy dust to bring make sense out of policy and bring the year into control. But, going into our current year, we have all the indicative data to assess outcomes. Persistent inflation, rising interest rates, manufacturing backlog, slowing GDP — flashing signs all around. Easy peasy right? Not so fast. In reality, there is little agreement on anything except for the fact that we may be heading into a recession. We can’t even tell at this point if the contraction will…


